04 ATTACHMENT 2 - Laserfiche WebLink

Retail Mixed Use Market Study Update 1 January 6, 2010 IV. MIXED USE RETAIL OPPORTUNITY Previous sections have first, modeled the demand for daily /weekly needs goods and services in Hacienda's Primary Trade Area that can realistically be captured by stores in Hacienda, and, second, inventoried the supply of existing and pipeline local- serving retail that serves this trade area. Demand and supply are, however, only two of the three critical factors that determine where retail will thrive, particularly the kind of retail that works in a mixed use setting. Strategic Economics refers to this third factor as "place," and it includes all of the site characteristics that retailers consider when selecting locations, as well as the design of the retail space and its relationship to the street. All retail is sensitive to traditional site location criteria such as visibility and access to freeways and major arterials, average daily traffic, preferred co- locating retailers, and critical mass of retail. Mixed use retail, which integrates retail into settings that also include housing and/or office, has even greater locational and physical design sensitivity, including frontage of retail on the street, access to pedestrian traffic, visual distinction from other uses, and the immediate proximity of retailers to one another, unseparated by parking. This section first describes the net supportable square footage of local- serving retail in Hacienda, as determined by the demand models and supply inventory. It then evaluates the current development opportunity sites in Hacienda from a retail site selection and development perspective. It also presents lessons learned from recent mixed use retail development projects serving Hacienda's Primary Trade Area. Finally, it lays out the recommended site, format and tenant mix for mixed use retail in Hacienda, developed by Strategic Economics and Craig Semmelmeyer of Main Street Properties Services, Inc. NET SUPPORTABLE RETAIL SQUARE FOOTAGE Table 17, below, summarizes the net outcome of the local- serving retail demand and supply analyses.' Given the number of mass market - oriented restaurants and the location of a WalMart in Hacienda, demand for additional food away from home and general retail merchandise is negative, even under the future growth scenarios. Demand for food at home and medicine, however, is sufficient to support an additional full- service supermarket and a traditional drugstore, even without project growth in Hacienda households.' ' Because the demand analyses were calibrated via capture rates to project the supportable retail square footage in Hacienda, the supply inventory that is netted out consists of the retail supply in Hacienda only, rather than the total supply inventoried. 2 Please note that the future growth scenarios do not project future growth in the PTA, only in Hacienda. ' New contemporary full- service supermarkets (such as Safeway) are between 40,000 and 55,000 square feet; new contemporary drugstores (such as Walgreen's) are approximately 10,000 to 20,000 square feet, except in very urban settings. 49