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City of Pleasanton GHG Inventory, Forecast, and Targets Methodology and Calculations 6 ▪ Reduce GHG emissions a minimum of 15 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, which is consistent with Assembly Bill (AB) 32;21 ▪ Reduce GHG emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, which is consistent with SB 3222 and in line with the reduction trajectory to achieve the State 2050 reduction goal (80 percent below 1990 levels) identified in Executive Order S-3-05;23 and ▪ Reduce GHG emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, consistent with Executive Order S-3- 05 or achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, which is consistent with E0 B-55-18.24 1.4 Progress Towards Pleasanton 2020 GHG Emissions Reduction Targets The first Pleasanton Climate Action Plan was adopted in 2012.25 It identified how the City and broader community can reduce Pleasanton GHGs and included a GHG emissions reduction target of 15 percent reduction below 2005 emissions levels by 2020 or a total reduction of 121,970 MT CO2e. This target was consistent with the Statewide goal established by AB 32 in 2006 of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. This 15 percent reduction target was in line with current best practices at the time for the climate action plans developed for the County of Alameda and several Bay Area cities that also utilized 2005 baselines. According to the updated 2005 and 2017 inventories (which both use the same methodologies), Pleasanton exceeded the 2020 reduction goal three years ahead of schedule by decreasing emissions by an estimated 154,456 MT CO2e, which equates to an overall mass emissions reduction of 28 percent below 2005 levels. This 2017 inventory and forecast also considered per capita emissions reductions to measure Pleasanton’s GHG emissions reduction progress when accounting for the rate at which Pleasanton has grown since 2005. This will be useful for the City to reference if it chooses to adopt a per capita target pathway for future GHG emissions reductions (see the Provisional GHG Emissions Targets section below for more information regarding per capita efficiency target pathways). In 2005, GHG emissions were an estimated 12.2 MT CO2e per person. This was calculated by dividing total GHG emissions from the updated 2005 GHG inventory by the Pleasanton 2005 population. In 2017, per capita emissions dropped to 7.7 MT CO2e per person. This equates to a per capita emissions reduction of 37 percent below 2005 levels. Details and discussion of previous inventories and changes made for consistency as part of this update can be found in Section 2. 21 AB 32 codified the State 2020 GHG emissions target by directing the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to reduce California’s Statewide emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 (approximately equivalent to a 15 percent reduction from 2005 to 2008 levels). The AB 32 Scoping Plan encourages local governments to adopt a target that parallels the State target. 22 SB 32 codified the State’s 2030 GHG emissions target by directing CARB to reduce California’s Statewide emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. CARB is currently working on a Scoping Plan to demonstrate how the State will achieve of the 2030 target. 23 Executive Order S-3-05 established ambitious GHG reduction targets for the State: reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels by 2010, to 1990 levels by 2020, and to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. SB 32 establishes a Statewide mid-term GHG reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. To remain consistent with the trajectory of SB 32 and S-03-05, emissions would need to be reduced 40 percent below 1990 levels over the 20-year period between 2030 and 2050, which is equal to approximately 2 percent per year. Since 2035 is 5 years past 2030, emissions would need to be reduced by an additional 10 percent over the 2030 target, which is 50 percent below 1990 in 2035 (equivalent to 58 percent below 2008 levels). 24 The Pleasanton Climate Action Plan Update will not include measures designed for implementation out to years 2045 or 2050 but rather present 2045 or 2050 forecast emissions and identify preliminary 2045 or 2050 targets to demonstrate the City commitment to achieve the City’s fair share of GHG emissions of State long-term 2045 or 2050 goal presented in Executive Orders B-55-18 or S-3-05, respectively. 25 Pleasanton, City of. 2012. Pleasanton 2020 Climate Action Plan. Available: <http://www.cityofpleasantonca.gov/gov/depts/os/env/cap/resources.asp>. Accessed: April 2020.