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Future GHG Emissions Forecasts Pleasanton Climate Action Plan Update 35 Program standards would increase global warming emissions by 14 million metric tons per year by 2025.54 Reductions in GHG emissions from the above referenced standards were calculated using the CARB EMFAC2017 model for Alameda County. The EMFAC2017 model integrates the estimated reductions into the mobile source emissions portion of the model.55 Note: As of the time of this writing, the federal Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule Part 2 has been posted in the Federal Register but will not take effect until June 29, 2020. This new rule rolls back California fuel efficiency standards for on-road passenger vehicles, so that cars and trucks will now only achieve a 40.4 mpg industry average by 2026 compared to the 46.7 mpg projected requirement under the previous California Advanced Clean Car Program/federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. No methodology currently exists for extracting or altering the on-road passenger vehicles fuel efficiency standard aspect of the Emissions Factors (EMFAC) model56 used to calculate forecasted vehicle GHG emissions. In addition, the California Climate Change Scoping Plan does not yet address or provide guidance related to this pending change in fuel efficiency standards with regard to GHG emissions determination. Furthermore, California is currently challenging this new rule in the court system. Therefore, the Pleasanton adjusted forecasts have not been modified to reflect the new SAFE Rule Part 2. Title 24 Although it was not originally intended to reduce GHG emissions, California Code of Regulations Title 24, Part 6: California’s Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential and Nonresidential Buildings, was adopted in 1978 in response to a legislative mandate to reduce California’s energy consumption, which in turn reduces fossil fuel consumption and associated GHG emissions. The standards are updated triennially to allow consideration and possible incorporation of new energy-efficient technologies and methods. Starting in 2020, new residential developments will include on-site solar generation and near- zero net energy use. For projects implemented after January 1, 2020, the California Energy Commission estimates the 2019 standards will reduce consumption by seven percent for residential buildings and 30 percent for commercial buildings, relative to the 2016 standards. These percentage savings relate to heating, cooling, lighting, and water heating only and do not include other appliances, outdoor lighting not attached to buildings, plug loads, or other energy uses. The calculations and GHG emissions forecast assume all growth in the residential and commercial/industrial sectors is from new construction. The 2017 Scoping Plan Update calls for the continuation of ongoing triennial updates to Title 24 which will yield regular increases in the mandatory energy and water savings for new construction. Future updates to Title 24 standards for residential and non-residential alterations past 2023 are not taken into consideration due to lack of data and certainty about the magnitude of energy savings realized with each subsequent update. 54 California Air Resources Board. 2018. California moves to ensure vehicles meet existing state greenhouse gas emissions standards. Available: <https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-moves-ensure-vehicles-meet-existing-state-greenhouse-gas-emissions-standards-0>. Accessed: April 17, 2020. 55 Additional details are provided in the EMFAC2017 Technical Documentation, July 2018. Available: <https://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/downloads/emfac2017-volume-iii-technical-documentation.pdf>. Accessed: April 15, 2020. The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) regulation is excluded from EMFAC2017 because most of the emissions benefits due to the LCFS come from the production cycle (upstream emissions) of the fuel rather than the combustion cycle (tailpipe). As a result, LCFS is assumed to not have a significant impact on CO2 emissions from EMFAC’s tailpipe emissions estimates. 56 The EMFAC model is developed and used by CARB to assess emissions from on-road vehicles including cars, trucks, and buses in California and to support CARB regulatory and planning efforts to meet Federal Highway Administration transportation planning requirements.