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Future GHG Emissions Forecasts Pleasanton Climate Action Plan Update 37 Adjusted Forecast Results The adjusted scenario is based on the same information as the business-as-usual scenario but also includes the legislative actions and associated emissions reductions occurring at the State and federal levels. These actions include regulatory requirements to increase vehicle fuel efficiency or standards to reduce the carbon intensity of electricity. The difference between the emissions projected in the adjusted scenario and the GHG reduction targets established for each horizon year is the amount of GHG reductions which are the responsibility of Pleasanton. This “gap analysis” provides Pleasanton with the total GHG emissions reduction required as well as information on the emissions sectors and sources which have the most GHG reduction opportunities. The electricity and water sectors all experience a strong downward trend, approaching near-zero in 2045 due to extremely stringent RPS from SB 100. Natural gas emissions are expected to continue an upward trajectory until 2050 due to strong population growth projections in the city. This trend is partially offset due to the increasingly stringent efficiency requirements for new homes in the upcoming Title 24 code cycles. Commercial growth will also lead commercial natural gas emissions on a similar trajectory. Transportation emissions are expected to decrease significantly in the next 10 to 15 years due to existing fuel efficiency requirements and fleet turnover rates. As most current regulations expire in 2025 or 2030, emissions standards will experience diminishing returns while VMT continues to increase, leading to lower rates of emissions reduction in the transportation sector. A summary of Pleasanton’s projected emissions by sector and year through 2050 can be found in