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Future GHG Emissions Forecasts
<br />
<br />Pleasanton Climate Action Plan Update 43
<br />
<br />Natural Gas Emissions
<br />Emissions from projected natural gas use were forecast using a similar methodology to the electricity
<br />sector. Anticipated natural gas use was projected for the residential and commercial sectors separately
<br />using population change and employment increase as growth indicators respectively. These results
<br />were multiplied by a natural gas emission factor of 0.00531 MT CO2e per therms of natural gas.59
<br />Unlike electricity, the natural gas emission factor is based on the quality of the gas and remains
<br />relatively constant over time. This analysis did not consider any shift to renewable gas which may
<br />become more common over time and the use of which may affect future natural gas emission factors.
<br />The methodologies and data used to calculate natural gas emissions over time are summarized in Table
<br />26 and Table 27.
<br />Legislative adjustments applied for the natural gas sector include efficiency increases from Title 24
<br />building code updates for new construction after the 2019 code cycle begins. Specific efficiency
<br />increases for new buildings over the previous triennial cycle are discussed in Section 4.2.
<br />Table 26 Natural Gas Adjusted Forecast Scenario Methodology
<br />Source Category
<br />Forecasted Activity Data
<br />(Scaling Factor)
<br />Emission
<br />Factor
<br />Applied Legislative
<br />Reductions
<br />Residential Natural Gas Population growth in Pleasanton 0.00531 MT
<br />CO2e/therms
<br />Title 24 standards for
<br />efficiency in new construction
<br />in 2019 (7 percent residential,
<br />30 percent commercial over
<br />2016 Title 24)
<br />Commercial & District Natural Gas Employment growth in
<br />Pleasanton
<br />MT CO2e: metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent
<br />Table 27 Natural Gas Adjusted Forecast Scenario Results by Target Year
<br />Activity Data 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
<br />Residential Gas
<br />BAU therms 12,223,478 12,417,912 12,759,914 13,505,198 14,252,769 15,041,721 15,874,345
<br />Title 24 adjusted
<br />therms 12,213,402 12,394,226 12,712,289 13,405,403 14,100,644 14,834,369 15,608,709
<br />Emissions factor
<br />(MT CO2e/therms) 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531
<br />MT CO2e 64,859 65,820 67,509 71,190 74,882 78,778 82,890
<br />Nonresidential Gas
<br />BAU therms 10,604,480 10,646,676 10,886,587 11,744,534 12,212,638 12,699,399 13,205,560
<br />Title 24 adjusted
<br />therms 10,603,890 10,643,133 10,866,250 11,664,141 12,099,477 12,552,165 13,022,895
<br />Emissions factor
<br />(MT CO2e/therms) 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531 0.00531
<br />MT CO2e 56,312 56,520 57,705 61,943 64,254 66,658 69,158
<br />MT CO2e: metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent; BAU: business-as-usual
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<br />59 The Climate Registry. 2019. Default Emissions Factors. Available: <https://www.theclimateregistry.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/The-
<br />Climate-Registry-2019-Default-Emission-Factor-Document.pdf>. Accessed: April 15, 2020
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