RES 221271 - Laserfiche WebLink

City of Pleasanton GHG Inventory, Forecast, and Targets Methodology and Calculations 50 California has enacted multiple regulations that will reduce future local emissions. The impact of these regulations on GHG emissions have been incorporated into an adjusted forecast, which provides a more accurate picture of future emissions growth and the emission reduction the City and community will be responsible for after State regulations have been implemented. These State regulations include but are not limited to SB 100 (which sets a goal for reaching 100 percent electricity from renewable energy and zero-carbon sources by 2045) and California Air Resources Board (CARB) tailpipe emissions standards (Pavley Standards, Advanced Clean Cars Program).61 Calculating the difference between the adjusted forecast and the reduction targets set by the City determines the gap to be closed through City CAP policy implementation. Evaluating the percent change in the adjusted forecast from 2017 levels shows that Pleasanton’s GHG emissions will decrease approximately 13 percent (76,386 metric tons) by 2030. Emissions will continue to decrease through 2040 but at a slower rate. Between 2030 and 2040 emissions will only decrease by an additional 2 percent, resulting in emissions being approximately 15 percent (85,842 metric tons) below 2017 levels in 2040. This is due to expected reductions from current legislation reaching the end of their effective lifetimes around 2030, particularly Title 24 and California’s vehicle efficiency standards. Emissions will then begin to increase again after 2040, with expected population and job growth beginning to outpace the GHG emissions reductions resulting from the SB 100 zero-carbon electricity goal in 2045. This will lead to emissions being approximately 11 percent (63,994 metric tons) lower than 2017 levels in 2050. Future State regulation may help offset this increase, but no long-term legislation has been adopted at the time of this writing. The summary results of the adjusted future GHG emissions forecast are shown in Figure 7 and provided within Table 36. Figure 7 Pleasanton Adjusted Future GHG Emissions Forecasts by Sector 61 Refer to Section 4.2 of this Technical Appendix for the full list of State and federal legislation that was taken into account within the forecasting model. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050MT CO2eYear Residential Electricity Nonresidential Electricity Direct Access Electricity Residential Gas Nonresidential Gas Waste Water Wastewater On-Road Passenger On-Road Commercial Off-Road Transportation