|
1/15/2026
<br />3
<br />RiversideCA.gov
<br />13
<br />POB OPTIONS – CHART COMPARISON
<br />Total ($ millions)
<br /> -
<br /> 10.0
<br /> 20.0
<br /> 30.0
<br /> 40.0
<br /> 50.0
<br /> 60.0
<br /> 70.0
<br /> 80.0
<br />Current
<br />Scenario 1
<br />Scenario 2
<br />Scenario 3
<br />Lines represent new
<br />POB payments +
<br />unrefunded UAL
<br />payments
<br />RiversideCA.gov
<br />14
<br />POB OPTIONS – ANNUAL SAVINGS COMPARISON
<br />Total ($ millions)General Fund ($ millions)
<br />Current UAL Current UAL
<br />Fiscal Year Payments Payments Savings Payments Savings Payments Savings Payments Payments Savings Payments Savings Payments Savings
<br />2021 46.1 36.0 10.0 37.8 8.2 39.1 7.0 32.9 25.9 7.0 25.9 7.0 25.9 7.0
<br />2022 51.5 44.1 7.4 44.5 7.0 44.5 7.0 37.1 30.1 7.0 30.1 7.0 30.1 7.0
<br />2023 55.8 48.8 7.0 47.8 8.0 47.8 8.0 40.5 33.5 7.0 32.5 8.0 32.5 8.0
<br />2024 57.8 50.8 7.0 49.8 8.0 48.8 9.0 42.3 35.3 7.0 34.3 8.0 33.3 9.0
<br />2025 59.0 52.0 7.0 50.0 9.0 49.0 10.0 42.8 35.8 7.0 33.8 9.0 32.8 10.0
<br />2026 62.0 54.5 7.5 51.5 10.5 49.9 12.2 45.4 38.4 7.0 36.4 9.0 35.4 10.0
<br />2027 63.0 54.5 8.5 51.5 11.5 49.9 13.2 45.9 37.9 8.0 35.9 10.0 35.9 10.0
<br />2028 64.8 50.5 14.2 51.5 13.2 49.9 14.9 47.2 39.2 8.0 37.2 10.0 37.2 10.0
<br />2029 66.5 54.5 12.0 51.5 15.0 49.9 16.7 48.5 39.5 9.0 38.5 10.0 38.2 10.3
<br />2030 68.4 54.6 13.8 51.5 16.9 49.9 18.5 49.8 40.8 9.0 39.8 10.0 38.2 11.6
<br />2031 70.2 54.5 15.7 51.5 18.7 49.9 20.4 51.2 41.2 10.0 40.3 10.9 38.2 13.0
<br />2032 64.1 54.1 10.0 51.5 12.6 49.8 14.3 47.7 37.7 10.0 37.7 10.0 37.7 10.0
<br />2033 62.4 54.6 7.8 51.5 10.9 49.9 12.5 46.7 43.1 3.6 40.3 6.4 38.2 8.5
<br />2034 58.3 54.6 3.7 51.5 6.8 49.9 8.4 43.4 41.7 1.7 40.3 3.2 38.2 5.2
<br />2035 55.0 54.6 0.5 51.5 3.5 49.9 5.2 41.3 41.1 0.2 39.7 1.6 38.2 3.1
<br />2036 50.8 50.8 0.0 50.8 0.0 49.9 1.0 38.4 38.4 0.0 38.4 0.0 37.9 0.4
<br />2037 43.9 43.9 0.0 43.9 0.0 43.9 0.0 33.4 33.4 0.0 33.4 0.0 33.4 0.0
<br />2038 40.5 40.5 0.0 40.5 0.0 40.5 0.0 30.9 30.9 0.0 30.9 0.0 30.9 0.0
<br />2039 36.9 36.9 0.0 36.9 0.0 36.9 0.0 28.2 28.2 0.0 28.2 0.0 28.2 0.0
<br />2040 34.5 34.5 0.0 34.5 0.0 29.9 4.6 26.3 26.2 0.0 26.2 0.0 24.1 2.1
<br />2041 33.2 33.2 - 33.2 - 26.9 6.2 25.2 25.2 - 25.2 - 22.3 2.9
<br />2042 22.2 22.2 - 22.2 0.0 17.2 5.0 17.6 17.6 - 17.6 0.0 15.3 2.3
<br />2043 15.5 15.5 0.0 15.5 (0.0) 14.1 1.3 14.7 14.7 0.0 14.7 (0.0) 14.1 0.6
<br />2044 12.6 12.6 - 12.6 - 12.6 0.0 12.6 12.6 - 12.6 - 12.6 0.0
<br />2045 3.3 3.3 0.0 3.3 - 3.2 0.1 3.3 3.3 0.0 3.3 - 3.2 0.1
<br />2046 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 (0.0) 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 (0.0)
<br />TOTAL 1,198.4 1,066.2 132.2 1,038.5 159.9 1,003.0 195.4 893.3 791.8 101.6 773.2 120.1 752.1 141.2
<br />Scenario 3 (95% Target
<br />Funding)
<br />Scenario 1 (89% Target
<br />Funding)
<br />Scenario 2 (92% Target
<br />Funding)
<br />Scenario 3 (95% Target
<br />Funding)
<br />Scenario 1 (89% Target
<br />Funding)
<br />Scenario 2 (92% Target
<br />Funding)
<br />Est. Annual Savings to General Fund through FY 2032
<br />IV. STRESS TESTING & SENSITIVITY
<br />RESULTS
<br />RiversideCA.gov
<br />16
<br />STRESS TESTING/SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (Part I)
<br />•PV Savings still
<br />strong under high stress
<br />situations
<br />•Larger
<br />Scenarios 2
<br />and 3 provide
<br />more est.
<br />savings than
<br />Scenario 1,
<br />even under multiple stress
<br />scenarios
<br />Comparison of Savings
<br />Present Value Savings (% of Refunded UAL and $ Amount)*
<br />* Stress test calculations are preliminary and subject to change. Stress test only considers actuarial discount rate, potential
<br />investment performance and debt repayment schedule to determine present value impact. Stress test does not incorporate
<br />any actuarial elements of the pension plan.
<br />RiversideCA.gov
<br />17
<br />STRESS TEST #1: 20% Negative Returns After POB (No Recovery)
<br />Projected Cash Flow Impact (No POB vs. With POB)
<br />* Estimated. Note - Risk of market crash is AFTER POB is issued. For discussion
<br />related to how current market crash impacts City, please see Section VI.
<br />0
<br />5,000,000
<br />10,000,000
<br />15,000,000
<br />20,000,000
<br />25,000,000
<br />30,000,000
<br />35,000,000
<br />40,000,000
<br />45,000,000
<br />50,000,000
<br />55,000,000
<br />60,000,000
<br />65,000,000
<br />70,000,000
<br />75,000,000
<br />80,000,000
<br />85,000,000
<br />90,000,000
<br />95,000,000
<br />100,000,000
<br />105,000,000
<br />110,000,000
<br />20
<br />2
<br />1
<br />20
<br />2
<br />2
<br />20
<br />2
<br />3
<br />20
<br />2
<br />4
<br />20
<br />2
<br />5
<br />20
<br />2
<br />6
<br />20
<br />2
<br />7
<br />20
<br />2
<br />8
<br />20
<br />2
<br />9
<br />20
<br />3
<br />0
<br />20
<br />3
<br />1
<br />20
<br />3
<br />2
<br />20
<br />3
<br />3
<br />20
<br />3
<br />4
<br />20
<br />3
<br />5
<br />20
<br />3
<br />6
<br />20
<br />3
<br />7
<br />20
<br />3
<br />8
<br />20
<br />3
<br />9
<br />20
<br />4
<br />0
<br />20
<br />4
<br />1
<br />20
<br />4
<br />2
<br />20
<br />4
<br />3
<br />20
<br />4
<br />4
<br />20
<br />4
<br />5
<br />20
<br />4
<br />6
<br />Status Quo (No Crash):
<br />Current $642M UAL (No POB)
<br />20% Crash: New ≈$365M UAL
<br />Added IF NO POB
<br />No Crash: Total Est. payments
<br />WITH POB (Option #2)
<br />20% Crash: New ≈$455M
<br />UAL Added WITH POB
<br />RiversideCA.gov
<br />18
<br />•Bartel and Associates performed two analyses:
<br />1.Performance of City’s 2004 & 2005 POBs ($150M total) based
<br />on actual CalPERS returns
<br />•Time period includes the Great Recession & multiple assumption
<br />changes by CalPERS
<br />•Results: $56 million of savings generated as of January 2020
<br />2.Projected savings for the proposed 2020 POBs
<br />•Bartel analyzed 1,000 random trials of potential future annual
<br />investment returns
<br />STRESS TESTING/SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
<br />(PART II – 3rd Party Actuary)
<br />13 14
<br />15 16
<br />17 18
<br />Docusign Envelope ID: BB80A86F-2853-4F40-B02D-18F5B9DD615F
|