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Section 3 2025 Urban Water Management Plan <br />Service Area Description City of Pleasanton <br /> Public Draft | May 2026 <br /> 3-4 EKI Environment & Water, Inc. <br /> Figure 3-2 Average Monthly Climatic Conditions <br />Climate change is expected to impact both water availability (supplies) and water demand patterns across <br />California. For example: <br />• Higher temperatures can lead to increases in water use, particularly for irrigation. <br />• Declining snowpack and earlier runoff patterns could result in changes in stream flows and <br />reservoir operations. <br />• Frequent, severe, and prolonged droughts could lead not only to less available surface water, <br />but could also exacerbate ongoing stressors in groundwater basins. <br />Some of these pressures are already apparent in California. <br />According to the Cal-Adapt tool, Pleasanton’s service area experienced a 30-year average temperature of <br />72.5°F between 1961 and 1990.3 Future projections using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) <br />downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model indicate an average increase in <br />temperature of 3.5°F for medium emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5) models <br />and 4.4°F for high emissions (RCP 8.5) models by 2064 (Figure 3-3). <br />Climate projections for precipitation for the area show greater uncertainty compared to temperature <br />projections, exhibiting a wider range of possible outcomes. Cal-Adapt projections using LOCA downscaled <br />CMIP5 models suggest that the maximum 1-day precipitation may increase slightly by 0.08 and 0.09 inches <br />under medium emissions (RCP 4.5) and high emissions (RCP 8.5) scenarios, respectively, relative to <br />historical conditions (Figure 3-4). <br /> <br />3 The Cal-Adapt tool is available at: https://cal-adapt.org/tools/local-climate-change-snapshot