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-25.0% <br />-20.0% <br />-15.0% <br />-10.0% <br />-5.0% <br />0.0% <br />5.0% <br />10.0% <br />15.0% <br />Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) <br />Recession <br />Y <br />O <br />Y <br />( <br />% <br />) <br /> <br />C <br />h <br />a <br />n <br />g <br />e <br />-1.00 <br />-0.75 <br />-0.50 <br />-0.25 <br />0.00 <br />0.25 <br />0.50 <br />0.75 <br />1.00 <br />Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) <br />Recession <br />3 <br /> <br />M <br />o <br />n <br />t <br />h <br /> <br />A <br />v <br />e <br />r <br />a <br />g <br />e <br />The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) edged up 0.1%in May to 99.3, following a revised 0.2% increase in April. Despite the <br />monthly gains, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates remained negative at -0.6% and -1.5%, respectively. The advance was driven <br />primarily by financial components, including equity prices and the interest rate spread, while consumer expectations continued to weigh on <br />the index. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.10 in May from an upwardly revised 0.19 in April. Production-related and <br />employment-related indicators each subtracted from the index, while the sales, orders, and inventories category made a small positive <br />contribution. <br />Source: The Conference Board Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago <br />LEADING INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY <br />9 <br />Page 179 of 373