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Source: Federal Reserve Source: Bloomberg <br />0 <br />1,000,000 <br />2,000,000 <br />3,000,000 <br />4,000,000 <br />5,000,000 <br />6,000,000 <br />7,000,000 <br />8,000,000 <br />9,000,000 <br />10,000,000 <br />Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Assets <br />Recession <br />I <br />n <br />$ <br /> <br />m <br />i <br />l <br />l <br />i <br />o <br />n <br />s <br />The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%to 3.75%at its June 16–17 meeting, <br />with a unanimous 12–0 vote. This marked a notable shift from the April meeting—Jerome Powell’s last as chair—which saw four dissents in <br />an 8–4 decision. The return to consensus under Chair Kevin Warsh signals a clear change in tone. Minutes from the June meeting are <br />scheduled for release in early July. The June Summary of Economic Projections reflected a more hawkish outlook. The median projection for <br />the federal funds rate at year-end 2026 rose to 3.8%,up from 3.4%in March, before easing to 3.6%in 2027 and 3.4%in 2028.Officials also <br />revised their inflation forecasts, with headline PCE projected at 3.6%in 2026 (from 2.7%) and core PCE at 3.3%.By contrast, median <br />projections for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate—2.2% and 4.3%, respectively—were little changed. <br />FEDERAL RESERVE <br />0.00% <br />1.00% <br />2.00% <br />3.00% <br />4.00% <br />5.00% <br />6.00% <br />Effective Federal Funds Rate <br />Recession <br />Y <br />i <br />e <br />l <br />d <br /> <br />( <br />% <br />) <br />13 <br />Page 183 of 373