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Chapter 3: Homeless Population and Current Service Capacity the 16,700 Section 8 certificates and vouchers (68%). Most of this housing is found in Oakland. The remaining subsidized housing is distributed among Mid, South, and East County, with most being located in Hayward and Mid County. Most of the remaining Section 8 is found in Mid County as well. The current supply of subsidized housing is far outweighed by the need for affordable housing among lower income renter households. According to 1990 census data, there were over 86,000 households in this group who are cost burdened; that is, paying more than 30 percent of their incomes on housing costs. While most households in this category are in North County, over 18,000 households are in Mid County, and some 13,000 households in South and East Counties. The available supply of housing is not meeting all, or even most, of this need for affordable housing. Only in a number of cities is the available supply meeting housing need greater than just 50 percent, namely Oakland, Union City, Livermore, and Pleasanton. Generally, in every city and County sub-region, the number of households whose affordable housing needs continue to be unmet is still very large, with only 36,500 subsidized rental units and over 86,000 cost burdened households. The most common form of permanent housing is the unsubsidized housing that is available in the rental market. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) has found that Alameda County has a shortage of more than 12,000 housing units affordable to people with incomes at 50 percent of median income (currently $21,050 for a household of one, $30,050 for a four person household) and 8,000 low income units affordable to people with incomes at 80 percent of median income. ABAG made its Bay Area determinations based on five factors: market demand for housing, employment opportunities, availability of suitable sites and public facilities, commuting patterns, and type and tenure of housing. Overall ABAG's Alameda County projection for lower income housing is significantly lower than the 86,500 cost burdened renter households in Alameda, most likely because of the limits imposed by the various factors that ABAG takes into account for its projections. While many formerly homeless people are able to find housing through the market, this housing is often too expensive and creates a burden on the household that puts them at risk of repeated homeless. In addition, in some parts of the county, much of the lower rent housing is in neighborhoods which are considered by many to be unsafe. In Alameda County, approximately 54,000 very-low income households pay more than 50 percent of their income as rent. Even market rate housing will see a shortage in the Bay Area according to ABAG projections in 1995. ABAG states that by the year 2010, based upon population projections and housing growth, there will be a shortage of 4,340 units for households in North County, and a shortage of 2,050 in South County. Alameda County-Wide Homeless Continuum of Care Plan: April 1997 35