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Expected Forecasts -- <br /> <br /> Transit Ridership <br /> <br /> The existing mode split in Tri-Valley involves 4 percent transit use for peak-hour <br /> commute trips, and this is expected to increase to 5 percent for the expected 2010 <br /> forecasts. Nevertheless, the drive-alone percentage is predicted to increase slightly <br /> from 76 percent to 80 percent. <br /> <br /> The traffic model estimates transit and carpool usage by taking into account travel <br /> time, travel cost, and transit availability. The model does not include pelicy direction <br /> that might lead to more carpooling or transit ridership--for example, the Bay Area Air <br /> Quality Management District goals to increase average vehicle ridership. Table 5-9 <br /> s-mmarizes the transit ridership forecast for the expected transit network Transit <br /> ridership is predicted by the Tri-Valley Transportation Model to almost triple by 2010, <br /> compared to a doubling of population and employment. The drive-alone percentage is <br /> expected to remain high, however. This is a function of time and cost factors, which <br /> will continue to favor driving alone. A complete breakdown of transit information for <br /> the "expected" 2010 forecast is included in the Appendix. <br /> <br /> Table 5-9 <br /> 2010 Expected Transit Ridership <br /> <br /> 1990 2010 <br /> Carrier Daily Ridership~ Daily Ridership2 ' <br /> <br /> County Connection 3,097 13,404 ' <br /> WHEELS 16,698 41,433 <br /> BART 19,482 52,058 3 <br /> Express Buses -- 6,041 <br /> <br /> Total 39,277 112,935 <br /> <br /> ~ For routes that serve the Td-Valley, based on Td-Valley Transportation Model validation run. <br /> ~ For routes that serve the Td-Valley, based on Td-Valley Transportation Model expected run. _ <br /> = Daily boardings of 44,000 on the BART line, the remainder on BART buses. <br /> <br /> Source: Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc., 1994. <br /> <br />Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc. 102 -- <br /> <br /> <br />