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Plan Alternatives Land Use Oppodunities -- Given the high cost, limited availability of funds, and lack of overall system improve- ment for either a maximum highway or maximum transit network, the consultant was instructed by the TVTC to test modifications to proposed land uses. " A real estate economics firm, Economic & Planning Systems (EPS), was contracted to prepare a study of how a reduced land use plan might be structured. Their complete land use study is included in the Appendix. They prepared the following list of criteria for structuring the reduced growth plan. Criteria for Developing Managed Growth Land Use Scenario 1. Determine Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) that are the significant contributions to traffic congestion (producing trips in excess of network link capacity). 2. Identify TAZs where residential and employment density could be increased where access to transit is high (transit-oriented development). 3. Identify TAZs where infrastructure capacity (e.g., arterial roadways) exists that can support higher density residential and employment mixed-use development. 4. Reduce proposed residential density in TAZs with limited or nonexistent network and poor transit service potential. 5. Reduce employment land use designations and/or proposed capacity in areas with limited road network and transit access, undeveloped or underdeveloped backbone ._ infrastructure, or weak market demand. 6. Construct a "Managed Growth Scenario" by redistributing and reducing 2010 ,, Expected Growth to achieve a level of service policy on Baseline Network. EPS used these criteria to develop specific reduced-growth recommendations (see Table 6-3). These recommendations were considered but not adopted by the TVTC. Several land use reduction treatments were tested with the traffic model. None produced satisfactory results with respect to eliminating overcapacity demand on the freeway system. As a worst-case test, the consultant tested an alternative with zero growth through 2010 in the Tri-Valley while allowing growth to occur as predicted in neighboring communities. Through this evaluation, it was determined that congestion at the gateways (I-680, Altamont Pass, and Vasco Road) would not be influenced by Tri Valley growth but rather growth in neighboring communities. In other words, there is no way to control the freeway system demand by only adjusting-growth within Tri Valley. Figure 6-6 shows the congested links with the zero growth alternative. The lack of local control over freeway volumes at the gateways, as evidenced by the zero growth alternatives, lead to the policy of gateway constraints. This is discussed further -- in Chapter 7. -- Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc. 115