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Executive Summan/ 1. Tri-Valley is relatively free of congestion. 2..' Trnn-qit use is relatively low--four percent of total trips. 3. Existing average vehicle occupancy is about 1.1 for commute trips. 4. There are 14,000 more employed residents than jobs, so there is net out-commuting. 5. 1-680 and 1-580 are major regional highways. Each has 15 to 20 percent through tr~C. 2010 Traffic Conditions Once the study issues and existing transpertatior~ system characteristics were identified, staff used the Tri-Valley Transportation Model to evaluate land use forecasts and alternative transportation systems. The land use forecasts were first developed in consultation with the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and MTC. When the plan was started, ABAG's Projections '90 were the most current forecasts available. Projections '90 did not include forecasts for the year 2010. These forecasts were extrape- lated from Projections '90 year 2005 forecasts in consultation with ABAG. Once developed, the TVTC determined that the forecasts did not reflect current land use or network p]onn~ng. The TVTC refined the land use forecasts and transportation networks to reflect current general plans and Projections '92, which had significantly increased employment projec- tions for some Alameda County jurisdictions. The "expected" land use forecasts were evaluated along with an "expected" transportation system. The results of this evaluation were as follows: · Highway gateways to the area (I-680 north of Alamo and south of Route 84, 1-580 over Dublin Grade and Alt~mont Pass, Crow Canyon Road at the county line, and Vasco Road) will ~ c':~r!c~ ~vcn ~..~-c have more demand than capacity. This would occur even without growth in the Tri-Valley due to regional traffic demands. · With some locally funded modifications, the majority of the arterial system within the Tri-Valley will operate at LOS D or better. · 1-680 and 1-580 within the Tri-Valley will operate at LOS E or better, provided ramp metering and HOV lanes are installed. · Jobs and housing growth for year 2010 is projected to be 99 percent and 84 percent, respectively. Jobs and housing would be in balance, that is, one job would exist for every employed resident. Provided there is a match between housing prices and salaries, this minimizes but does not eliminate in-commuting and out-commuting. The 1990 ratio of jobs to employed residents was 0.91. In 2010 the ratio is expected to increase to 0.99. Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc. ix