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Retail Mixed Use Market Study Update 1 January 6, 2010 V. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FINDINGS Demographics and Psychographics With an average household income of $107,558, residents of the Primary Trade area are more affluent, more educated, and more likely to live in family households than their neighbors in the County of Alameda. These households are characterized as professional, dual income families with significant disposable income. In addition, the population of the Primary Trade Area has been increasing faster than the surrounding City or County, a trend that is likely to continue in the next real estate cycle. Demand Current and future retail demand figures for Hacienda employees, residents of the park and the primary trade area, and BART commuters were estimated separately and aggregated into a total demand figure at the end of the section. This figure included low- growth and high - growth scenarios. The future residential growth scenarios only account for growth within Hacienda, and do not include potential growth in the Primary Trade Area. Total Demand Generated by Employees and Residents. In total, residents in Hacienda and the Primary Trade Area and business park employees support 268,000 square feet of restaurants and retail space in and around the park. The low growth scenario, which assumes the lowest build out of residential units in Hacienda and no new employment space, would support 311,000 square feet of retail. In the high growth scenario, which assumes maximum Hacienda residential and employment build out, residents and employees would support 352,000 square feet of residential space. Demand Generated by Transit Users. Retail space around the Dublin/Pleasanton BART is likely to enjoy additional support from the more than 7,000 commuters[1] who pass through the station each day. Although Hacienda is a major employment destination, the station's status as the last on the line draws residential commuters from neighborhoods not served by BART. Although a buying power analysis could not be conducted to ascertain the potential retail demand generated by BART commuters, past research suggests that BART traffic would generate additional support for at least one retail store around the Dublin/Pleasanton station. Supply Existing Retail Supply. The market for local- serving strip and large format retail space serving Hacienda's Primary Trade Area has withstood the general recent economic downturn better than many other areas, likely due to pent -up demand from the considerable household growth in greater Dublin since 2000. In particular, neighborhood retail centers anchored by supermarkets have maintained low vacancy rates, and recent community centers with contemporary formats and lifestyle amenities that create a shopping experience are performing strongly. The Shops at Waterford Place and Hacienda Crossings have rents over $3.00 triple net per square foot and vacancies of 3 percent or less. Given the educational and income characteristics of Hacienda's Primary Trade Area households, there are currently insufficient local opportunities for the types 1I1 Sources: 2008 BART Station Profile Study, BART Marketing and Research Department. Corey, Canapary & Gnlanis Research: BART Fiscal Year Average Weekday Exits by Station. Mtp:it xx:ban.govaboutreporwiudcx.aspx 63