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The forecast presented in Error! Reference source not found. represents an estimate of energy efficiency potential that is "net" of free-riders and represents the following types of energy efficiency measures and market sectors: • Emerging Technologies • E Program Measures • Residential • Commercial • Industrial-Manufacturing This forecast does not include energy efficiency potential associated with building codes, appliance standards, or estimates for the agricultural or mining market sectors. Examples of Potential Programs and Measures While there are countless opportunities and approaches to achieve energy efficiency, following presents several examples of technologies and programs that will yield savings above what is being targeted through the current portfolio of PG&E programs operating in Alameda County. This includes initiatives that might compliment and leverage existing technologies or programs, or highlight emerging opportunities that are in design or in early deployment. High Efficacy LED Lighting. Commercial and residential lighting currently make up 25% of California's total statewide electricity consumption.52 LED lighting will provide increasing opportunities for energy savings in the coming years as prices continue to fall and LED efficiency(i.e., efficacy or lumens per watt of power, lm/w53) improves. Figure 5 shows that between 2020 and 2030, LEDs lighting will achieve efficiencies of 200 lm/w and prices will reach parity with current CFL and incandescent prices within the next 10 years. Table 5 shows that 200 lm/w represent a 74% reduction in current average residential lighting efficiency, and approximately a 50% reduction in average non-residential lighting efficiency. As the LED adoption rates at present are low, and because the technology and costs are both evolving rapidly and favorably, the potential exists for CCA energy efficiency programs to drive this transition by focusing on high efficacy LED applications. The potential between the current market efficacy for lighting shown in Table 5 and a full market penetration of 200 lm/w LED lighting represents a reduction in state wide(and Alameda County)consumption of electricity of approximately 14%. While programs do exist that promote LED lighting, a program focused on the highest efficacy products, some of which currently exceed 1401m/w54, would provide savings that are incremental to many products 52 California Commercial Saturation Survey.Itron Inc.,August 2014 Table 5-82 53 U.S.Energy Information Administration,Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release 54 http://www.cree.com/LED-Components-and-Modules/Products/XLamp/Discrete- Directional/XLamp-XPE-HE W F-22