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Chapter 8 <br />Water Shortage Contingency Plan <br />THE CITY OF <br />PL£ASANTON <br />Earthquakes are common, relatively well -tracked, and studied in California. While California experiences <br />hundreds of earthquakes each year, most are below 3.0 on the Richter Scale (i.e., magnitude 3.0) and <br />cause minimal damage. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) roughly defines strong earthquakes <br />(which can cause moderate damage to structures) as measuring greater than 5.0 on the Richter Scale, <br />while major earthquakes measure more than 7.0 on the Richter Scale. In California, strong earthquakes <br />occur every two to three years, and major earthquakes occur once a decade. <br />The Calaveras, Greenville, Hayward, and Mt. Diablo faults are in the vicinity of the Tri -Valley region. A <br />2016 report2 by the USGS estimated the probabilities for magnitude -6.7 (or larger) earthquakes on major <br />fault lines in the San Francisco Bay Area by the year 2043. The Hayward Fault has a 33 percent chance of <br />one or more earthquakes of magnitude -6.7 or larger by 2043, while the Calaveras Fault has a 26 percent <br />chance of one or more such earthquakes in that timeframe. The Greenville and Mt. Diablo faults each <br />have a 16 percent chance of one or more earthquakes of magnitude -6.7 or larger by 2043. <br />The 2018 LHMP evaluated the impact of earthquakes on critical facilities and infrastructure using a Hazus <br />analysis. Results for utilities infrastructure (including water system facilities) are presented in terms of <br />level of damage and time to return to functionality. There are five damage levels (no damage, slight <br />damage, moderate damage, extensive damage, and complete damage) and six time increments (1, 3, 7, <br />14, 30, and 90 days). Results are categorized by earthquake location; there are separate scenarios for <br />earthquakes on each of the Calaveras, Greenville, Hayward, Mt. Diablo, and San Andreas faults. <br />According to the 2018 LHMP, earthquakes on the Hayward and Calaveras faults would be most significant. <br />In its earthquake analysis, the 2018 LHMP identified 120 critical utility facilities (i.e., providing water, <br />electricity, and communications service) in the Tri -Valley region. Over 80 percent of utility facilities would <br />experience at least moderate damage for an earthquake on the Hayward Fault, while approximately <br />44 percent would be at least moderately damaged by a Calaveras Fault earthquake. For earthquakes on the <br />other faults analyzed (Greenville, Mt. Diablo, San Andreas), this number is below 15 percent. Seven days <br />after an earthquake on the Hayward Fault, one of these facilities has an approximately 52 percent chance <br />of being fully functional. This increases to approximately 84 percent for an earthquake on the Calaveras Fault <br />and above 92 percent for earthquakes on the Greenville, Mt. Diablo, and San Andreas faults. <br />Table 18-3 of the 2018 LHMP summarizes alternatives for mitigating the earthquake hazard on personal, <br />corporate, and government scales. Mitigation options potentially applicable to the City include <br />the following: <br />• Locate critical facilities outside hazard area where possible <br />• Harden infrastructure <br />• Provide redundancy for critical functions <br />• Include retrofitting and replacement of critical system elements in capital improvement plan <br />• Warehouse critical infrastructure components such as pipe materials <br />• Develop and adopt a continuity of operations plan <br />z U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), 2016. Earthquake Outlook for the San Francisco Bay Region 2014-2043. <br />https://Pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs2Ol63020.odf <br />WEST YOST <br />N-680-60-20-04-WP-R-680-2020UWMP <br />8-2 <br />City of Pleasanton <br />2020 Urban Water Management Plan <br />May 2021 <br />