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City of Pleasanton GHG Inventory, Forecast, and Targets Methodology and Calculations 8 2.1 1990 Reference-Year Inventory The State of California uses 1990 as a reference year to remain consistent with AB 32 and SB 32, which codified the State’s 2020 and 2030 GHG emissions targets by directing CARB to reduce Statewide emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. The City of Pleasanton’s initial inventory was conducted for the year 2005. The State indicated in the first Climate Change Scoping Plan in 2008 that local governments wishing to remain consistent with State targets could use a 15 percent reduction from 2005-2009 levels as a proxy for a 1990 baseline.26 The updated 1990 proxy baseline used for target setting by Pleasanton is 691,161 MT CO2e.27 2.2 CAP 1.0 2005 Inventory In 2008, Pleasanton collaborated with ICLEI to develop a 2005 community GHG emissions inventory. The 2005 inventory quantified community emissions and forecast business-as-usual (BAU) conditions to 2020 based on expected population, employment, and growth. It included emissions from the residential energy, commercial/industrial energy, on-road transportation (using data from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) for VMT data), and waste sectors. In 2012, this 2005 inventory was updated to include additional sectors (referred to here as the CAP 1.0 2005 inventory) and develop forecasts of emissions for 2020 and 2025. The CAP 1.0 inventory added emissions from off-road vehicles, direct access electricity, water and wastewater systems, municipal operations, and utilized the Alameda County CMA Travel Demand Model (now known as Alameda CTC) for VMT estimates. This led to an overall 6.5% decrease in GHG emissions for the 2005 baseline inventory year compared to the original 2005 inventory completed by ICLEI. The CAP 1.0 inventory from 2012 was updated as part of this current 2020 inventory and forecast effort for the CAP Update, using the most recent methodology, data, and emissions factors. This updated 2005 inventory for the CAP Update, along with inventories for 2010, 2015, and 2017, were originally developed by East Bay Energy Watch in 2019 and then updated by Rincon. (see section 2.3 below for more details on changes made by Rincon to these inventories). Table 3 compares changes in emissions by sector between the previous CAP 1.0 2005 inventory and updated CAP 2.0 2005 inventory. Overall, emissions in the updated CAP 2005 inventory increased by 5 percent, mainly due to an increase in emissions from the off-road transportation sector. 26 Due to lack of 1990 inventory data for local governments, page 27 of the 2008 Climate Change Scoping Plan identifies 15 percent below “current” (2005-2009) levels by 2020 as consistent with the State goals of 1990 levels by 2020, allowing local governments to back-cast to develop 1990 baselines for future GHG reduction targets. 27 Calculated using updated 2005 CAP 2.0 inventory created by EBEW and completed by Rincon.