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Future GHG Emissions Forecasts Pleasanton Climate Action Plan Update 31 4 Future GHG Emissions Forecasts A GHG emissions inventory sets a reference point for a single year. However, annual emissions change over time due to factors such as population and job growth as well as new technologies and policies. A GHG emissions forecast accounts for projected growth and presents an estimate of GHG emissions in future years. Calculating the difference between the GHG emissions forecast and the GHG emissions reduction targets set by a jurisdiction determines the gap that needs to be closed through the jurisdiction’s climate action plan policies. This section calculates an emissions forecast for the City of Pleasanton through 2050 in a business-as-usual (BAU) forecast scenario, and then quantifies the reduction impact that State regulations will have on the City of Pleasanton GHG emissions forecast and presents the results in an adjusted forecast scenario. The adjusted scenario incorporates the impact of State regulations which would reduce the City of Pleasanton’s GHG emissions to provide a more accurate picture of future emissions growth and the responsibility of the City and community for GHG reductions once State regulations to reduce GHG emissions have been implemented. Several indicator growth rates were developed and applied to the various emissions sectors to forecast emissions as shown in Table 16. The growth rates were applied to the most recent inventory year (2017) data to obtain projected activity data (e.g., energy use, waste production). Growth rates were developed from the Association of Bay Area Government’s Plan Bay Area Projections 2040, EMFAC Modeling, OFFROAD2007 modeling, and California Department of Finance demographic estimates for the City of Pleasanton and Alameda County. Applicable State and federal regulatory requirements, including Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, Advanced Clean Car Standards, Renewable Portfolio Standard, and Title 24 efficiencies were then incorporated to accurately reflect expected reductions from State programs. Plan Bay Area Projections 2040 has demographic projections starting with 2010, and was the primary source for forecast projections.51 In comparison with demographic data from the California Department of Finance E4 and E5 datasets52 (which are updated year-to-year based on census data and jurisdictional data on population changes), however, Plan Bay Area Projections 2040 underestimates population and job growth in Pleasanton for 2015, 2020, and subsequent forecast years. For this reason, these forecast projections were adjusted using the calculated percent difference between the Plan Bay Area Projections 2040 and the Department of Finance data for 2015 and 2020. The result is a set of adjusted population and job projections through 2045 that reflect the greater increase in growth experienced by the City of Pleasanton between 2015 and 2020. 51 Association of Bay Area Governments and Metropolitan Transportation Commission. 2018. Plan Bay Area Projections 2040. Available: <http://projections.planbayarea.org/>. Accessed: April 10, 2020. 52 California Department of Finance. 2020. Available: <http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/>. Accessed: April 16, 2020.