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City of Pleasanton <br />GHG Inventory, Forecast, and Targets Methodology and Calculations <br /> <br />32 <br />4.1 Business-as-Usual Forecast Scenario <br />The City of Pleasanton business-as-usual scenario forecast provides an estimate of how GHG emissions <br />would change in the forecast years if consumption trends continue as in 2017, absent any new <br />regulations which would reduce local emissions. Several indicator growth rates were developed from <br />2017 activity levels and applied to the various emissions sectors to project future year emissions. Table <br />20 contains a list of growth factors used to develop the business-as-usual scenario forecast, with a <br />summary of the results in Table 19. The BAU growth factors were then multiplied by the population or <br />service person growth rates to develop the BAU emissions forecast. <br />Table 20 Business-as-Usual Forecast Scenario Growth Factors <br />Sector Activity Data <br />Emissions per capita (MT CO2e/capita) 7.7 <br />Residential electricity per capita (kWh/capita) 2,376.0 <br />Commercial electricity use per job (kWh/employment) 4,909.4 <br />Direct Access electricity per capita (kWh/capita) 687.7 <br />Residential gas per capita (therms/capita) 153.7 <br />Commercial gas use per job (therms/job) 161.9 <br />Solid Waste per service person (tons/SP) 0.7 <br />ADC Waste per service person (tons/SP) 0.0026 <br />Wastewater Process GHG per service population (MT CO2e/SP) 0.0062 <br />CO2e per ton solid waste (MT CO2e/ton) 0.3 <br />CO2e per ton ADC waste (MT CO2e/ton) 0.2 <br />Water electricity per service person (kWh/SP) 127.7 <br />Wastewater electricity per service person (kWh/SP) 22.8 <br />Total VMT per service person (VMT/SP) 4,884.41 <br />kWh: kilowatt hour; SP: service person (sum of population and employment) MT CO2e: metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; VMT: <br />vehicle miles traveled <br />Under the business-as-usual forecast scenario, Pleasanton GHG emissions are projected to continue <br />increasing through 2050 as shown in Table 21. This increase is led primarily by a strong commercial and <br />residential development trend. After the current General Plan horizon year of 2025, major increases in <br />in emissions are largely attributed to the increased population and vehicular traffic from the greater <br />Alameda County Area traveling into the city. By 2050, the City is expected to produce 169,689 MT CO2e <br />more emissions under the business-as-usual projections, an increase of 29 percent over 2017 <br />emissions.