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AUGUSTIN BERNAL MOUNTAIN BIKE TRAIL PROJECT DRAFT INITIAL STUDY in the Scoping Plan. Most of these measures focus on area source emissions(e.g.,energy usage, high-GWP GHGs in consumer products)and changes to the vehicle fleet(i.e., hybrid,electric,and more fuel-efficient vehicles) and associated fuels (e.g., Low Carbon Fuel Standard), among others.To the extent that these regulations are applicable to the project,the project would comply will all regulations adopted in furtherance of the Scoping Plan to the extent required by law. Regarding consistency with Senate Bill (SB) 32 (goal of reducing GHG emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030) and Executive Order (EO) S-3-05 (goal of reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050), there are no established protocols or thresholds of significance for that future-year analysis. However, CARB has expressed optimism with regard to both the 2030 and 2050 goals. It states in the First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan that "California is on track to meet the near-term 2020 GHG emissions limit and is well positioned to maintain and continue reductions beyond 2020 as required by AB 32" (CARE 2014). With regard to the 2050 target for reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels, the First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan states the following(CARE 2014): "This level of reduction is achievable in California. In fact, if California realizes the expected benefits of existing policy goals (such as 12,000 megawatts of renewable distributed generation by 2020, net zero energy homes after 2020, existing building retrofits under Assembly Bill 758, and others) it could reduce emissions by 2030 to levels squarely in line with those needed in the developed world and to stay on track to reduce emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Additional measures, including locally driven measures and those necessary to meet federal air quality standards in 2032,could lead to even greater emission reductions." In other words, CARB believes that the state is on a trajectory to meet the 2030 and 2050 GHG reduction targets set forth in AB 32,SB 32, and EO S-3-05.This is confirmed in California's 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan (2017 Scoping Plan), which states, "This Plan draws from the experiences in developing and implementing previous plans to present a path to reaching California's 2030 GHG reduction target. The Plan is a package of economically viable and technologically feasible actions to not just keep California on track to achieve its 2030 target, but stay on track for a low- to zero-carbon economy by involving every part of the state (CARB 2017)."The 2017 Scoping Plan also states that although "the Scoping Plan charts the path to achieving the 2030 GHG emissions reduction target, we also need momentum to propel us to the 2050 statewide GHG target (80% below 1990 levels). In developing this Scoping Plan, we considered what policies are needed to meet our mid-term and long-term goals(CARB 2017)." The project would not interfere with implementation of any of the above-described GHG reduction goals for 2030 or 2050 because the project would not exceed the BAAQMD's GHG threshold of 1,100 MT CO2e per year,which was established based on the goal of AB 32 to reduce statewide GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.Because the project would not exceed the threshold,this analysis provides support for the conclusion that the project would not impede the state's trajectory toward the above-described statewide GHG reduction goals for 2030 or 2050. Since the specific path to compliance for the state in regards to the long-term goals will likely require development of technology or other changes that are not currently known or available, 12956 DUDEK 59 April 2022